![]() ![]() ![]() Potential damage sizes, severities, and locations remain very uncertain. Damage from the blast is the predominant hazard, while heat damage and tsunamis are possible, although less likely and severe. If we take an average size of ~150 m, what kind of damage could 2021 PDC do? Anywhere from 0 – 86 million people could be affected. Best case? At 35 m the asteroid, if it strikes, would cause a major airbust if it broke up in the atmosphere up to devastation on a local scale. Such an asteroid striking Earth would have catastrophic results, although it is beneath the 1 km threshold for a possible global catastrophe. The worst case scenario for 2021 PDC is it measures 700 m in size. Potential impact zone: 2/3 of Earth’s surfaceīased on current orbit knowledge, 2021 PDC could impact anywhere within a region that covers 2/3 of the Earth surface, shaded here in red/purple. As more observations are made, the uncertainty region will shrink.Īccounting for current uncertainties, fictional asteroid 2021 PDC could be as large as 700 m or as small as 35 m. 5% of the red dots currently intersect Earth, giving a 1 in 20 chance of impact. The red dots show possible positions of 2021 PDC on October 20, 2021, computed using just one week of tracking data since discovery. The rest of the scenario will be played out at the conference.ĭAY 1: Meet the asteroid – what’s the risk?ĭay 1 of the Planetary Defense Conference and we looked in a little more detail at hypothetical asteroid 2021 PDC, as well as determining some initial ideas of the impact effects, if it were to strike.Ĭhance of impact: 5% At present, due to limited observations of the asteroid, the uncertainty in 2021 PDC’s path is high. As of April 26, 2021, the first day of the 2021 Planetary Defense Conference, the probability of impact has climbed to about 5%. Astronomers continue to track the asteroid every night after discovery, and the impact probability steadily increases. Its ‘apparent magnitude’ suggests an asteroid of about 120 meters in size. Its size, in particular, is highly uncertain. Very little is known about the physical properties of 2021 PDC. With only two days of tracking on this object, no better estimate of impact probability can be made. The probability of that impact is about 1 in 2500. Both agree the most likely potential impact is on 20 October 2021 – just 6 months away. The day after 2021 PDC is discovered, NASA and ESA ‘impact monitoring systems’ identify several future dates when this asteroid could potentially impact the Earth. An asteroid was discovered on 19 April 2021 and has been given the name “2021 PDC” by the IAU’s Minor Planet Center. This year’s asteroid – ‘2021 PDC’ Potential impact hemisphere for 2021 PDC ![]() ![]() During these week-long impact scenarios, participants don’t know how the situation will evolve know from one day to the next but must make plans based on the daily updates they are given.įor only the second time in the conference’s history, ESA will be live tweeting the hypothetical impact scenario – so you’ll find out the ‘news’ as the experts do. Setting the scene: Planetary Defense Conference 2021Įvery two years, asteroid experts from across the globe come together to pretend an asteroid impact is imminent. **This post describes an entirely hypothetical asteroid impact scenario, playing out during this year’s Planetary Defense Conference**ĭaily updates are added to the top of the bottom of the page. ![]()
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